Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
