Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
